Navigating the Age of Turbulence: Reimagining the International System

A Confluence of Crises

Our world faces a maelstrom of interconnected challenges. From the devastating war in Ukraine to escalating great power competition, the international landscape is fraught with peril. Climate change fuels wildfires, floods, and heatwaves, disrupting food supplies and driving mass displacement. Record-breaking temperatures underscore the urgency of the climate crisis, while political polarization cripples democracies and authoritarianism gains ground. A burgeoning global debt crisis further complicates the picture, threatening vital public services and investments.

This era is not simply turbulent; it's defined by a unique convergence of political, geo-strategic, economic, social, technological, and environmental forces. These transnational challenges defy solutions devised by individual nations or existing multilateral institutions. Looming large are three potential existential threats: the accelerating climate crisis, a new nuclear arms race, and the disruptive potential of technologies like artificial intelligence.

As Roger Cohen of The New York Times aptly notes, "With inequality worsening, food security worsening, energy security worsening, and climate change accelerating, more countries are asking what answers the post-1945 Western-dominated order can provide."

Rethinking the Logic of International Relations

Management theorist Peter Drucker warned that "acting with yesterday's logic" is the greatest danger in turbulent times. Our current international system, rooted in centuries-old concepts like national sovereignty and the pursuit of national interest, is ill-equipped to address 21st-century realities. We must critically examine this "logic of the past" to determine what to retain, revise, retire, and create anew.

Humanity's dominance has led to remarkable advancements, but also to the exploitation of nature and a biodiversity crisis. The logic of the future must recognize humanity as part of nature, prioritizing biodiversity conservation for a sustainable planet.

While national sovereignty remains important, its limitations in addressing transnational challenges necessitate exploring new forms of “pooled” or “collaborative” sovereignty, exemplified by the European Union. We must also consider the concept of "human sovereignty," prioritizing the inherent dignity and rights of all individuals.

The pursuit of national interest must be balanced with a focus on the global commons. Shared responsibility for global public goods is crucial for navigating interdependence. The rise of "uninhibited middle powers" and the "global majority" demands a more equitable distribution of power in international affairs.

Traditional internationalism must evolve to include innovative dispute resolution mechanisms, consistent application of international law, and a focus on "equitable trade." Agile networks and polylateral arrangements can complement traditional institutions.

We must shift from defining peace as the absence of war to embracing "positive peace," addressing systemic injustices that fuel conflict. While military force remains necessary in certain situations, diplomatic capacity, equitable development, and investments in human needs are paramount.

Moving beyond zero-sum logic, embracing dynamic alignments and "multi-alignment" can foster positive-sum solutions. Strategic empathy, rather than strategic narcissism, must guide international relations, emphasizing understanding over persuasion.

The legacies of colonialism, racism, and patriarchy continue to shape the international system. The logic of the future must prioritize universal human dignity, equality, pluralism, and justice.

Finally, shifting from a neoliberal focus on GDP growth to a "wellbeing economy" that prioritizes social and environmental factors is essential. Global norms and regulatory regimes are needed to safely harness the transformative potential of technologies like AI.

Building a New Global Framework

Building a more just and sustainable future requires a new international framework. This includes cocreating a more equitable international system, remaking the United Nations, supplementing it with agile networks and partnerships, empowering subnational governments, and training a new generation of diplomats. Promoting equitable trade and investment, strengthening democracy, establishing mechanisms for U.S.-China cooperation, codifying the rights of nature and future generations, and transforming U.S. global leadership are all crucial building blocks.

Toward a Sustainable Future

The age of turbulence presents unprecedented challenges, but also an opportunity for transformative change. We must embrace a new logic, a new ethos of caring and sharing, and a new institutional ecosystem to navigate this era and ensure that it does not become the age of catastrophe. Our legacy must be one of action, not inattention, to the rising tides of crisis. Our children and our planet deserve a sustainable future.